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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Thornbury A v Workout Harbourside A (Wed 05 Sep 2018)Match played between Rob Livingstone/Mark 'On Your' Toseland (home) and Aaron Lawrence/Adam Jefferies (away).Match won by Rob Livingstone/Mark 'On Your' Toseland. Result: 13-15,15-10,15-6,15-9. Starting level for Rob Livingstone/Mark 'On Your' Toseland: 1,177, level confidence: 30%. Starting level for Aaron Lawrence/Adam Jefferies: 797, level confidence: 10%. Rob Livingstone/Mark 'On Your' Toseland to win as he is currently playing 48% better than Aaron Lawrence/Adam Jefferies. Rob Livingstone/Mark 'On Your' Toseland won 75% of the games and 59% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 45% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rob Livingstone/Mark 'On Your' Toseland played 32% better than Aaron Lawrence/Adam Jefferies in this match. As Rob Livingstone/Mark 'On Your' Toseland has played below his allowed range at 1,055, his level reduction is 0.6% before damping. On the assumption that Rob Livingstone/Mark 'On Your' Toseland would normally have been playing at level 1,124 (based on typical behaviour), Aaron Lawrence/Adam Jefferies played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.5%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.5% and 2.9% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rob Livingstone/Mark 'On Your' Toseland changes to 0% and Aaron Lawrence/Adam Jefferies changes to +2.9%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rob Livingstone/Mark 'On Your' Toseland becomes -0.1% and for Aaron Lawrence/Adam Jefferies becomes +2.9%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Doubles 2018' so the adjustment for Rob Livingstone/Mark 'On Your' Toseland is 0% and for Aaron Lawrence/Adam Jefferies is +2.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob Livingstone/Mark 'On Your' Toseland: 55%, Aaron Lawrence/Adam Jefferies: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob Livingstone/Mark 'On Your' Toseland: 52%, Aaron Lawrence/Adam Jefferies: 30%. Final level for Rob Livingstone/Mark 'On Your' Toseland: 1,176, level confidence: 52%. Final level for Aaron Lawrence/Adam Jefferies: 814, level confidence: 30%. Notes
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