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Login: | Explaining level changesDiv 1: University of Bristol Chicken Dinners v Redland Winter Jaguars (Thu 24 Feb 2011)Match played between Jenny Sharpe (home) and Anita Edson (away).Match won by Anita Edson. Result: 3-9,1-9,3-9. Starting level for Jenny Sharpe: 148, level confidence: 34%. Starting level for Anita Edson: 519, level confidence: 80%. Set manually. Anita Edson to win as she is currently playing 251% better than Jenny Sharpe. Anita Edson won all of the games and 79% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 97% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Anita Edson played 97% better than Jenny Sharpe in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Anita Edson was taking it easy by anything up to 30%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 235 and 519 without affecting her level. In this case, Anita Edson played at level 326 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Anita Edson would normally have been playing at level 365 (based on typical behaviour), Jenny Sharpe played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 12%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 6.2% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Anita Edson changes to 0% and Jenny Sharpe changes to +6.2%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Anita Edson becomes 0% and for Jenny Sharpe becomes +4.6%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Spring 2011' so the adjustment for Anita Edson is 0% and for Jenny Sharpe is +3.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Anita Edson: 89%, Jenny Sharpe: 59%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Anita Edson: 67%, Jenny Sharpe: 44%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jenny Sharpe: 153, level confidence: 44%. Final level for Anita Edson: 518, level confidence: 67%. Notes
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