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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: Lansdown 2 v Shepton Mallet A (Wed 02 Mar 2011)Match played between Grant Jones (home) and Trevor Messenger (away).Match won by Grant Jones. Result: 9-3,9-0,9-0. Starting level for Grant Jones: 2,105, level confidence: 52%. Starting level for Trevor Messenger: 1,089, level confidence: 70%. Grant Jones to win as he is currently playing 93% better than Trevor Messenger. Grant Jones won all of the games and 90% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 209% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Grant Jones played 209% better than Trevor Messenger in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Grant Jones actually played at a level of 2,661 and Trevor Messenger at a level of 861. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 26% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 18% and 18% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Grant Jones changes to +18% and Trevor Messenger changes to -13%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Grant Jones becomes +7.8% and for Trevor Messenger becomes -7.7%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2011' so the adjustment for Grant Jones is +5.8% and for Trevor Messenger is -5.7%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Trevor Messenger is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Grant Jones: 72%, Trevor Messenger: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Grant Jones: 57%, Trevor Messenger: 66%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Grant Jones: 2,224, level confidence: 57%. Final level for Trevor Messenger: 1,034, level confidence: 66%. Notes
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