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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: Redwood v Shepton Mallet A (Wed 02 Feb 2011)Match played between Tony Somerville (home) and Trevor Messenger (away).Match won by Tony Somerville. Result: 9-6,9-4,9-2. Starting level for Tony Somerville: 2,027, level confidence: 69%. Starting level for Trevor Messenger: 1,070, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Tony Somerville to win as he is currently playing 89% better than Trevor Messenger. Tony Somerville won all of the games and 69% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 51% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tony Somerville played 52% better than Trevor Messenger in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Tony Somerville was taking it easy by anything up to 11%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,574 and 2,027 without affecting his level. In this case, Tony Somerville played at level 1,718 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Tony Somerville would normally have been playing at level 1,812 (based on typical behaviour), Trevor Messenger played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.4%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.9% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tony Somerville changes to 0% and Trevor Messenger changes to +3.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tony Somerville becomes 0% and for Trevor Messenger becomes +3.3%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2011' so the adjustment for Tony Somerville is 0% and for Trevor Messenger is +2.5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tony Somerville: 83%, Trevor Messenger: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tony Somerville: 75%, Trevor Messenger: 76%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Tony Somerville: 2,025, level confidence: 75%. Final level for Trevor Messenger: 1,095, level confidence: 76%. Notes
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