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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2B: Gordano A v Bradley Stoke Squash Club A (Wed 16 Mar 2011)Match played between Edwin Swidenbank (home) and John Edwards (away).Match won by Edwin Swidenbank. Result: 10-8,9-2,9-2. Starting level for Edwin Swidenbank: 1,938, level confidence: 68%. Starting level for John Edwards: 865, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Edwin Swidenbank to win as he is currently playing 124% better than John Edwards. Edwin Swidenbank won all of the games and 70% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 55% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Edwin Swidenbank played 55% better than John Edwards in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Edwin Swidenbank was taking it easy by anything up to 15%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,328 and 1,938 without affecting his level. In this case, Edwin Swidenbank played at level 1,482 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Edwin Swidenbank would normally have been playing at level 1,638 (based on typical behaviour), John Edwards played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.5%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 6.9% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Edwin Swidenbank changes to 0% and John Edwards changes to +6.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Edwin Swidenbank becomes 0% and for John Edwards becomes +4.6%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2011' so the adjustment for Edwin Swidenbank is 0% and for John Edwards is +3.5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Edwin Swidenbank: 82%, John Edwards: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Edwin Swidenbank: 68%, John Edwards: 72%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Edwin Swidenbank: 1,935, level confidence: 68%. Final level for John Edwards: 894, level confidence: 72%. Notes
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