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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2C: Cheddar Valley A v University of Bristol Sharks (Tue 08 Mar 2011)Match played between Jonathon (Jp) Pratt (home) and Hugh Gimber (away).Match won by Hugh Gimber. Result: 1-9,1-9,1-9. Starting level for Jonathon (Jp) Pratt: 523, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Starting level for Hugh Gimber: 933, level confidence: 82%. Set manually. Hugh Gimber to win as he is currently playing 78% better than Jonathon (Jp) Pratt. Hugh Gimber won all of the games and 90% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 209% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Hugh Gimber played 209% better than Jonathon (Jp) Pratt in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Hugh Gimber actually played at a level of 1,228 and Jonathon (Jp) Pratt at a level of 397. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 32% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 23% and 23% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Hugh Gimber changes to +20% and Jonathon (Jp) Pratt changes to -23%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Hugh Gimber becomes +11.1% and for Jonathon (Jp) Pratt becomes -13%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2011' so the adjustment for Hugh Gimber is +8.4% and for Jonathon (Jp) Pratt is -9.1%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Jonathon (Jp) Pratt is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Hugh Gimber: 91%, Jonathon (Jp) Pratt: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Hugh Gimber: 69%, Jonathon (Jp) Pratt: 64%. A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jonathon (Jp) Pratt: 500, level confidence: 64%. Final level for Hugh Gimber: 1,009, level confidence: 69%. Notes
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