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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2C: Whitchurch Imperial v Westbury David Lloyd B (Wed 16 Mar 2011)Match played between Terry Field (home) and Bob Brassington (away).Match won by Bob Brassington. Result: 3-9,6-9,0-9. Starting level for Terry Field: 497, level confidence: 81%. Set manually. Starting level for Bob Brassington: 1,084, level confidence: 62%. Bob Brassington to win as he is currently playing 118% better than Terry Field. Bob Brassington won all of the games and 75% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 76% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Bob Brassington played 76% better than Terry Field in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Bob Brassington was taking it easy by anything up to 15%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 758 and 1,084 without affecting his level. In this case, Bob Brassington played at level 899 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Bob Brassington would normally have been playing at level 924 (based on typical behaviour), Terry Field played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.8%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.9% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Bob Brassington changes to 0% and Terry Field changes to +1.4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Bob Brassington becomes 0% and for Terry Field becomes +1.4%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2011' so the adjustment for Bob Brassington is 0% and for Terry Field is +1.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Bob Brassington: 79%, Terry Field: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Bob Brassington: 71%, Terry Field: 81%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Terry Field: 502, level confidence: 81%. Final level for Bob Brassington: 1,082, level confidence: 71%. Notes
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