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Login: | Explaining level changesMatthew Regan v Henry Tovey (Sun 09 Jan 2011)Match won by Henry Tovey. Result: 13-11,8-11,11-7,4-11,9-11.Starting level for Matthew Regan: 119, level confidence: 34%. Starting level for Henry Tovey: 2,862, level confidence: 10%. Henry Tovey to win as he is currently playing 2305% better than Matthew Regan. Henry Tovey won 60% of the games and 53% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 13% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Henry Tovey played 11% better than Matthew Regan in this match. No results for Henry Tovey for more than 12 months before this junior event (Avon Junior Closed) so assume an estimated 14% increase since then. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Henry Tovey was taking it easy by anything up to 74%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 225 and 3,250 without affecting his level. As Henry Tovey has played below his allowed range at 172, his level reduction is 31% before damping. On the assumption that Henry Tovey would normally have been playing at level 856 (based on typical behaviour), Matthew Regan played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 155%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.6% and 21% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Henry Tovey changes to -5.6% and Matthew Regan changes to +6.2%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Henry Tovey becomes -2.9% and for Matthew Regan becomes +4.6%. Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Avon Junior Closed' so the adjustment is unchanged. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Henry Tovey: 32%, Matthew Regan: 58%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Henry Tovey: 10%, Matthew Regan: 13%. A final adjustment of +1.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Matthew Regan: 127, level confidence: 13%. Final level for Henry Tovey: 3,154, level confidence: 10%. Notes
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