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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Westbury David Lloyd Women's winter A v Weston (Thu 13 Mar 2008)Match played between Yvonne Powell (home) and Sally Thompson (away).Match won by Sally Thompson. Result: 7-9,9-3,7-9,7-9. Starting level for Yvonne Powell: 516, level confidence: 10%. Starting level for Sally Thompson: 262, level confidence: 66%. Yvonne Powell to win as she is currently playing 97% better than Sally Thompson. Sally Thompson won 75% of the games and 50% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 0% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Sally Thompson played 17% better than Yvonne Powell in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Sally Thompson actually played at a level of 397 and Yvonne Powell at a level of 340. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 52% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 35% and 35% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Sally Thompson changes to +5.2% and Yvonne Powell changes to -35%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Sally Thompson becomes +4.1% and for Yvonne Powell becomes -18%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Women's Winter - Second Half 2008' so the adjustment for Sally Thompson is +3.1% and for Yvonne Powell is -13%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Yvonne Powell is limited to -12% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Sally Thompson: 82%, Yvonne Powell: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Sally Thompson: 54%, Yvonne Powell: 21%. A final adjustment of +1.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Yvonne Powell: 472, level confidence: 21%. Final level for Sally Thompson: 270, level confidence: 54%. Notes
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