|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: University of Bath 4 v Redwood Phoenix (Wed 05 Mar 2008)Match played between David Price (home) and Jethro Binns (away).Match won by Jethro Binns. Result: 3-9,9-7,3-9,6-9:4-9,4-9,3-9:9-5,7-9,4-9,9-7,3-9:8-10,9-5,4-9,9-7,4-9:1-9,3-9,9-5,0-9. Starting level for David Price: 5,282, level confidence: 87%. Set manually. Starting level for Jethro Binns: 15,227, level confidence: 45%. Jethro Binns to win as he is currently playing 188% better than David Price. Jethro Binns won 75% of the games and 62% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jethro Binns played 26% better than David Price in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Jethro Binns was taking it easy by anything up to 23%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 8,431 and 15,227 without affecting his level. As Jethro Binns has played below his allowed range at 7,500, his level reduction is 12% before damping. On the assumption that Jethro Binns would normally have been playing at level 11,709 (based on typical behaviour), David Price played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 32%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.1% and 18% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jethro Binns changes to -7.1% and David Price changes to +9.2%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jethro Binns becomes -2.3% and for David Price becomes +3.5%. Given Jethro Binns's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 30% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Given David Price's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.2% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2008' so the adjustment for Jethro Binns is -1.3% and for David Price is +2.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jethro Binns: 67%, David Price: 94%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jethro Binns: 44%, David Price: 62%. A final adjustment of +3.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for David Price: 5,437, level confidence: 62%. Final level for Jethro Binns: 16,143, level confidence: 44%. Notes
|