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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Lansdown 1 v Redwood Phoenix (Wed 19 Mar 2008)Match played between Andy Ewings (home) and Alexi Cole (away).Match won by Alexi Cole. Result: 7-9,0-9,4-9. Starting level for Andy Ewings: 2,270, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Starting level for Alexi Cole: 5,037, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Alexi Cole to win as he is currently playing 122% better than Andy Ewings. Alexi Cole won all of the games and 71% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 58% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alexi Cole played 57% better than Andy Ewings in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Alexi Cole was taking it easy by anything up to 15%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 3,477 and 5,037 without affecting his level. In this case, Alexi Cole played at level 3,902 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Alexi Cole would normally have been playing at level 4,272 (based on typical behaviour), Andy Ewings played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.5%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 6.3% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alexi Cole changes to 0% and Andy Ewings changes to +6.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alexi Cole becomes 0% and for Andy Ewings becomes +3.4%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2008' so the adjustment for Alexi Cole is 0% and for Andy Ewings is +2.5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alexi Cole: 87%, Andy Ewings: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alexi Cole: 73%, Andy Ewings: 73%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Andy Ewings: 2,324, level confidence: 73%. Final level for Alexi Cole: 5,029, level confidence: 73%. Notes
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