|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2A: Whitchurch Imperial A v Thornbury C (Summer) (Wed 18 Jun 2014)Match played between Neal Mathias (home) and Alicia Venables (away).Match won by Neal Mathias. Result: 9-0,9-6,9-0. Starting level for Neal Mathias: 1,622, level confidence: 42%. Starting level for Alicia Venables: 318, level confidence: 39%. Neal Mathias to win as he is currently playing 410% better than Alicia Venables. Neal Mathias won all of the games and 82% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 118% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Neal Mathias played 118% better than Alicia Venables in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Neal Mathias was taking it easy by anything up to 43%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 436 and 1,622 without affecting his level. In this case, Neal Mathias played at level 802 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Neal Mathias would normally have been playing at level 927 (based on typical behaviour), Alicia Venables played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 16%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 6.6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Neal Mathias changes to 0% and Alicia Venables changes to +6.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Neal Mathias becomes 0% and for Alicia Venables becomes +4.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2014' so the adjustment for Neal Mathias is 0% and for Alicia Venables is +3.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Neal Mathias: 65%, Alicia Venables: 62%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Neal Mathias: 42%, Alicia Venables: 41%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Neal Mathias: 1,620, level confidence: 42%. Final level for Alicia Venables: 328, level confidence: 41%. Notes
|