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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 3A: Workout Harbourside v Redland Summer E (Wed 16 Jul 2014)Match played between Joseph Smith (home) and Andy Gyles (away).Match won by Joseph Smith. Result: 15-12,15-6,15-9. Starting level for Joseph Smith: 1,741, level confidence: 64%. Starting level for Andy Gyles: 929, level confidence: 88%. Set manually. Joseph Smith to win as he is currently playing 87% better than Andy Gyles. Joseph Smith won all of the games and 63% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 67% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joseph Smith played 67% better than Andy Gyles in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Joseph Smith was taking it easy by anything up to 10%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,348 and 1,741 without affecting his level. In this case, Joseph Smith played at level 1,555 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Joseph Smith would normally have been playing at level 1,562 (based on typical behaviour), Andy Gyles played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.4%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joseph Smith changes to 0% and Andy Gyles changes to 0%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joseph Smith becomes 0% and for Andy Gyles becomes 0%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2014' so the adjustment for Joseph Smith is 0% and for Andy Gyles is 0%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joseph Smith: 80%, Andy Gyles: 94%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joseph Smith: 75%, Andy Gyles: 89%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Joseph Smith: 1,738, level confidence: 75%. Final level for Andy Gyles: 929, level confidence: 89%. Notes
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