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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: David Lloyd A v Workout Harbourside 1 (Wed 26 Nov 2014)Match played between Simon Hygate (home) and Hadrian Stiff (away).Match won by Hadrian Stiff. Result: 4-11,3-11,2-11:6-11,6-11,7-11:11-8,8-11,10-12,11-6,11-7:9-11,4-11,9-11:6-11,8-11,11-13. Starting level for Simon Hygate: 4,498, level confidence: 69%. Starting level for Hadrian Stiff: 15,187, level confidence: 18%. Hadrian Stiff to win as he is currently playing 238% better than Simon Hygate. Hadrian Stiff won all of the games and 79% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 267% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Hadrian Stiff played 267% better than Simon Hygate in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Hadrian Stiff actually played at a level of 15,826 and Simon Hygate at a level of 4,316. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.2% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.3% and 2.3% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Hadrian Stiff changes to +2.3% and Simon Hygate changes to -0.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Hadrian Stiff becomes +1% and for Simon Hygate becomes -0.4%. Given Hadrian Stiff's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 30% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Hadrian Stiff is +0.6% and for Simon Hygate is 0%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Hadrian Stiff: 43%, Simon Hygate: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Hadrian Stiff: 41%, Simon Hygate: 80%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Simon Hygate: 4,482, level confidence: 80%. Final level for Hadrian Stiff: 15,262, level confidence: 41%. Notes
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