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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Westbury David Lloyd Eurotaxis v Weston (Wed 26 Nov 2014)Match played between Roshan Bharos (home) and Luke Bishop (away).Match won by Luke Bishop. Result: 8-11,11-9,11-13,8-11:6-11,7-11,8-11:10-12,5-11,7-11:11-5,9-11,11-5,13-11:7-11,8-11,11-8,11-7,10-12. Starting level for Roshan Bharos: 8,778, level confidence: 67%. Starting level for Luke Bishop: 8,034, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Roshan Bharos to win as he is currently playing 9% better than Luke Bishop. Luke Bishop won 75% of the games and 54% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Luke Bishop played 22% better than Roshan Bharos in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Luke Bishop actually played at a level of 9,274 and Roshan Bharos at a level of 7,604. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Luke Bishop changes to +13% and Roshan Bharos changes to -15%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Luke Bishop becomes +4.1% and for Roshan Bharos becomes -4.4%. Given Luke Bishop's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 11% has been applied to his level change. Given Roshan Bharos's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 14% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Luke Bishop is +2.7% and for Roshan Bharos is -2.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Luke Bishop: 87%, Roshan Bharos: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Luke Bishop: 76%, Roshan Bharos: 71%. A final adjustment of +2.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Roshan Bharos: 8,593, level confidence: 71%. Final level for Luke Bishop: 8,636, level confidence: 76%. Notes
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