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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Westbury David Lloyd Eurotaxis v Weston (Wed 26 Nov 2014)Match played between Dave Naish (home) and Adam 'The Hulk' Giles (away).Match won by Adam 'The Hulk' Giles. Result: 6-11,7-11,8-11. Starting level for Dave Naish: 5,765, level confidence: 83%. Set manually. Starting level for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 8,664, level confidence: 10%. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles to win as he is currently playing 50% better than Dave Naish. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles won all of the games and 61% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adam 'The Hulk' Giles played 56% better than Dave Naish in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adam 'The Hulk' Giles actually played at a level of 8,839 and Dave Naish at a level of 5,651. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.6% and 1.6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles changes to +1.6% and Dave Naish changes to 0%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles becomes +0.8% and for Dave Naish becomes 0%. Given Adam 'The Hulk' Giles's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 13% has been applied to his level change. Given Dave Naish's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3.2% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles is +0.6% and for Dave Naish is 0%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 32%, Dave Naish: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 31%, Dave Naish: 89%. A final adjustment of -9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Dave Naish: 5,635, level confidence: 89%. Final level for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 7,499, level confidence: 31%. Notes
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