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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Westbury David Lloyd Eurotaxis v Weston (Wed 26 Nov 2014)Match played between Keith Sanzo (home) and Chris Clare (away).Match won by Chris Clare. Result: 10-12,5-11,7-11. Starting level for Keith Sanzo: 5,444, level confidence: 82%. Set manually. Starting level for Chris Clare: 8,253, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Chris Clare to win as he is currently playing 52% better than Keith Sanzo. Chris Clare won all of the games and 61% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 55% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Clare played 55% better than Keith Sanzo in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Clare actually played at a level of 8,337 and Keith Sanzo at a level of 5,389. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.8% and 0.8% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Clare changes to +0.8% and Keith Sanzo changes to -0.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Clare becomes +0.4% and for Keith Sanzo becomes -0.4%. Given Chris Clare's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 12% has been applied to his level change. Given Keith Sanzo's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.9% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Chris Clare is 0% and for Keith Sanzo is -0.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Clare: 84%, Keith Sanzo: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Clare: 83%, Keith Sanzo: 89%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Keith Sanzo: 5,421, level confidence: 89%. Final level for Chris Clare: 8,267, level confidence: 83%. Notes
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