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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Weston v Lansdown 1 (Wed 03 Dec 2014)Match played between Luke Bishop (home) and Will Kingwell (away).Match won by Luke Bishop. Result: 11-5,11-4,11-9:11-4,11-9,11-6:11-3,11-6,11-5:12-10,11-6,12-10:11-9,11-8,4-11,9-11,11-7. Starting level for Luke Bishop: 8,636, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Starting level for Will Kingwell: 6,432, level confidence: 68%. Luke Bishop to win as he is currently playing 34% better than Will Kingwell. Luke Bishop won all of the games and 65% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Luke Bishop played 83% better than Will Kingwell in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Luke Bishop actually played at a level of 10,091 and Will Kingwell at a level of 5,504. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 14% and 14% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Luke Bishop changes to +13% and Will Kingwell changes to -14%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Luke Bishop becomes +4.1% and for Will Kingwell becomes -4.7%. Given Luke Bishop's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 13% has been applied to his level change. Given Will Kingwell's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 5.8% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Luke Bishop is +2.7% and for Will Kingwell is -3.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Luke Bishop: 85%, Will Kingwell: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Luke Bishop: 73%, Will Kingwell: 70%. A final adjustment of -1.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Luke Bishop: 8,642, level confidence: 73%. Final level for Will Kingwell: 6,204, level confidence: 70%. Notes
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