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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Weston v Lansdown 1 (Wed 03 Dec 2014)Match played between Adam 'The Hulk' Giles (home) and Liam Dickson (away).Match won by Adam 'The Hulk' Giles. Result: 11-4,11-9,11-6. Starting level for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 7,499, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Starting level for Liam Dickson: 5,026, level confidence: 66%. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles to win as he is currently playing 49% better than Liam Dickson. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles won all of the games and 63% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adam 'The Hulk' Giles played 74% better than Liam Dickson in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adam 'The Hulk' Giles actually played at a level of 8,091 and Liam Dickson at a level of 4,658. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.9% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.4% and 6.4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles changes to +5.8% and Liam Dickson changes to -6.4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles becomes +2.3% and for Liam Dickson becomes -2.8%. Given Adam 'The Hulk' Giles's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.6% has been applied to his level change. Given Liam Dickson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles is +1.6% and for Liam Dickson is -2.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 85%, Liam Dickson: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 79%, Liam Dickson: 75%. A final adjustment of -2.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 7,283, level confidence: 79%. Final level for Liam Dickson: 4,895, level confidence: 75%. Notes
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