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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside 1 v Weston (Wed 10 Dec 2014)Match played between Josh Masters (home) and Luke Bishop (away).Match won by Josh Masters. Result: 11-4,7-11,11-6,11-6:11-8,11-8,11-4:3-11,9-11,7-11:13-11,11-6,3-11,11-8:11-7,6-11,1-11,11-7,6-11. Starting level for Josh Masters: 12,091, level confidence: 82%. Set manually. Starting level for Luke Bishop: 8,642, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Josh Masters to win as he is currently playing 40% better than Luke Bishop. Josh Masters won 75% of the games and 60% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Josh Masters played 33% better than Luke Bishop in this match. In this case, Josh Masters played at level 11,565 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Josh Masters would normally have been playing at level 11,669 (based on typical behaviour), Luke Bishop played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.9%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.8% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Josh Masters changes to 0% and Luke Bishop changes to +0.8%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Josh Masters becomes 0% and for Luke Bishop becomes +0.4%. Given Luke Bishop's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 13% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Josh Masters is 0% and for Luke Bishop is 0%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Josh Masters: 90%, Luke Bishop: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Josh Masters: 88%, Luke Bishop: 83%. A final adjustment of +8.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Josh Masters: 13,752, level confidence: 88%. Final level for Luke Bishop: 8,964, level confidence: 83%. Notes
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