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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside 1 v Weston (Wed 10 Dec 2014)Match played between Hadrian Stiff (home) and Adam 'The Hulk' Giles (away).Match won by Hadrian Stiff. Result: 11-8,11-8,11-4. Starting level for Hadrian Stiff: 14,934, level confidence: 54%. Starting level for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 7,283, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Hadrian Stiff to win as he is currently playing 105% better than Adam 'The Hulk' Giles. Hadrian Stiff won all of the games and 62% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Hadrian Stiff played 65% better than Adam 'The Hulk' Giles in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Hadrian Stiff was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 10,902 and 14,934 without affecting his level. In this case, Hadrian Stiff played at level 12,491 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Hadrian Stiff would normally have been playing at level 12,985 (based on typical behaviour), Adam 'The Hulk' Giles played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.9%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Hadrian Stiff changes to 0% and Adam 'The Hulk' Giles changes to +1.9%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Hadrian Stiff becomes 0% and for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles becomes +1%. Given Adam 'The Hulk' Giles's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 8.8% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Hadrian Stiff is 0% and for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles is +0.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Hadrian Stiff: 74%, Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Hadrian Stiff: 66%, Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 78%. A final adjustment of -1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Hadrian Stiff: 14,663, level confidence: 66%. Final level for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 7,323, level confidence: 78%. Notes
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