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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1B: Redland Z v Lansdown 7 (Wed 26 Nov 2014)Match played between Jonathan Platt (home) and Lee Jacobs (away).Match won by Lee Jacobs. Result: 7-9,0-9,0-9. Starting level for Jonathan Platt: 1,556, level confidence: 86%. Set manually. Starting level for Lee Jacobs: 2,077, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Lee Jacobs to win as he is currently playing 33% better than Jonathan Platt. Lee Jacobs won all of the games and 79% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 97% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lee Jacobs played 97% better than Jonathan Platt in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lee Jacobs actually played at a level of 2,523 and Jonathan Platt at a level of 1,281. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 18% and 18% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lee Jacobs changes to +18% and Jonathan Platt changes to -16%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lee Jacobs becomes +7.8% and for Jonathan Platt becomes -7.9%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Lee Jacobs is +5.9% and for Jonathan Platt is -5.8%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Jonathan Platt is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lee Jacobs: 88%, Jonathan Platt: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lee Jacobs: 72%, Jonathan Platt: 76%. A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jonathan Platt: 1,486, level confidence: 76%. Final level for Lee Jacobs: 2,198, level confidence: 72%. Notes
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