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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1B: University of Bristol Sharks v Westbury David Lloyd B (Thu 27 Nov 2014)Match played between Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary (home) and Marco Mama (away).Match won by Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary. Result: 9-3,9-4,9-3. Starting level for Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary: 727, level confidence: 49%. Starting level for Marco Mama: 1,672, level confidence: 18%. Marco Mama to win as he is currently playing 130% better than Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary. Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary won all of the games and 73% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 67% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary played 67% better than Marco Mama in this match. An upset! Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary actually played at a level of 1,425 and Marco Mama at a level of 853. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 96% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 56% and 56% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary changes to +20% and Marco Mama changes to -56%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary becomes +11.4% and for Marco Mama becomes -21%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary is +8.5% and for Marco Mama is -15%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Marco Mama is limited to -14% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary: 70%, Marco Mama: 42%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary: 36%, Marco Mama: 22%. A final adjustment of +2.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary: 788, level confidence: 36%. Final level for Marco Mama: 1,555, level confidence: 22%. Notes
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