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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1B: Gordano A v University of Bristol Sharks (Wed 03 Dec 2014)Match played between Steve Gale (home) and Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary (away).Match won by Steve Gale. Result: 10-8,9-2,9-5. Starting level for Steve Gale: 1,316, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Starting level for Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary: 788, level confidence: 35%. Steve Gale to win as he is currently playing 67% better than Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary. Steve Gale won all of the games and 65% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steve Gale played 44% better than Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary in this match. In this case, Steve Gale played at level 1,176 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Steve Gale would normally have been playing at level 1,221 (based on typical behaviour), Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.9%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steve Gale changes to 0% and Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary changes to +3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steve Gale becomes 0% and for Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary becomes +3%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Steve Gale is 0% and for Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary is +2.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steve Gale: 86%, Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary: 59%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steve Gale: 80%, Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary: 55%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Steve Gale: 1,314, level confidence: 80%. Final level for Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary: 804, level confidence: 55%. Notes
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