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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1B: University of Bristol Sharks v Thornbury C (Tue 09 Dec 2014)Match played between Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary (home) and Ian Johnson (away).Match won by Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary. Result: 9-3,9-5,10-8. Starting level for Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary: 804, level confidence: 53%. Starting level for Ian Johnson: 1,401, level confidence: 52%. Ian Johnson to win as he is currently playing 74% better than Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary. Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary won all of the games and 64% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 35% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary played 42% better than Ian Johnson in this match. An upset! Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary actually played at a level of 1,263 and Ian Johnson at a level of 892. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 57% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 41% and 41% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary changes to +40% and Ian Johnson changes to -41%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary becomes +19.9% and for Ian Johnson becomes -18%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary is +15% and for Ian Johnson is -13%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary is limited to +10% and Ian Johnson is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary: 73%, Ian Johnson: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary: 47%, Ian Johnson: 46%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary: 883, level confidence: 47%. Final level for Ian Johnson: 1,332, level confidence: 46%. Notes
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