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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2B: Bradley Stoke Squash Club A v Bath Leisure Squash 1 (Wed 05 Nov 2014)Match played between Neil Beetlestone (home) and Charlie Samler (away).Match won by Neil Beetlestone. Result: 9-1,9-1,9-0. Starting level for Neil Beetlestone: 1,351, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Starting level for Charlie Samler: 1,046, level confidence: 27%. Neil Beetlestone to win as he is currently playing 29% better than Charlie Samler. Neil Beetlestone won all of the games and 93% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 278% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Neil Beetlestone played 278% better than Charlie Samler in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Neil Beetlestone actually played at a level of 2,311 and Charlie Samler at a level of 611. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 71% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 60% and 60% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Neil Beetlestone changes to +23% and Charlie Samler changes to -60%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Neil Beetlestone becomes +11% and for Charlie Samler becomes -28%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Neil Beetlestone is +8.2% and for Charlie Samler is -20%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Charlie Samler is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Neil Beetlestone: 84%, Charlie Samler: 52%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Neil Beetlestone: 49%, Charlie Samler: 30%. A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Neil Beetlestone: 1,465, level confidence: 49%. Final level for Charlie Samler: 998, level confidence: 30%. Notes
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