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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2C: Weston String Strokers v Redland Fireflies (Wed 19 Nov 2014)Match played between Harry Lane (home) and Steve Rundle (away).Match won by Harry Lane. Result: 9-2,10-8,9-8. Starting level for Harry Lane: 1,645, level confidence: 70%. Starting level for Steve Rundle: 856, level confidence: 67%. Harry Lane to win as he is currently playing 92% better than Steve Rundle. Harry Lane won all of the games and 61% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harry Lane played 36% better than Steve Rundle in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Harry Lane was taking it easy by anything up to 11%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,264 and 1,645 without affecting his level. As Harry Lane has played below his allowed range at 1,211, his level reduction is 4.3% before damping. On the assumption that Harry Lane would normally have been playing at level 1,463 (based on typical behaviour), Steve Rundle played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 12%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.1% and 8.7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harry Lane changes to -3% and Steve Rundle changes to +8.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harry Lane becomes -2.4% and for Steve Rundle becomes +5.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Harry Lane is -1.8% and for Steve Rundle is +4.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harry Lane: 84%, Steve Rundle: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harry Lane: 70%, Steve Rundle: 68%. A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Harry Lane: 1,615, level confidence: 70%. Final level for Steve Rundle: 893, level confidence: 68%. Notes
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