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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 3A: Burnham-On-Sea Squash A v University of Bristol Fresh (Wed 26 Nov 2014)Match played between Rob Broom (home) and Harry Stevenson-Smith (away).Match won by Rob Broom. Result: 9-5,9-4,9-1. Starting level for Rob Broom: 1,579, level confidence: 67%. Starting level for Harry Stevenson-Smith: 194, level confidence: 10%. Rob Broom to win as he is currently playing 714% better than Harry Stevenson-Smith. Rob Broom won all of the games and 73% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 67% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rob Broom played 67% better than Harry Stevenson-Smith in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Rob Broom was taking it easy by anything up to 55%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 265 and 1,579 without affecting his level. In this case, Rob Broom played at level 481 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Rob Broom would normally have been playing at level 715 (based on typical behaviour), Harry Stevenson-Smith played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 49%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 15% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rob Broom changes to 0% and Harry Stevenson-Smith changes to +15%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rob Broom becomes 0% and for Harry Stevenson-Smith becomes +8.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Rob Broom is 0% and for Harry Stevenson-Smith is +6.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob Broom: 82%, Harry Stevenson-Smith: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob Broom: 37%, Harry Stevenson-Smith: 14%. A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Rob Broom: 1,577, level confidence: 37%. Final level for Harry Stevenson-Smith: 206, level confidence: 14%. Notes
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