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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2A: Workout Harbourside v Redwood Phoenix (Wed 29 Jun 2011)Match played between James Chamings (home) and Ben Swift (away).Match won by James Chamings. Result: 3-9,9-5,9-6,9-6. Starting level for James Chamings: 1,002, level confidence: 48%. Starting level for Ben Swift: 1,539, level confidence: 64%. Ben Swift to win as he is currently playing 54% better than James Chamings. James Chamings won 75% of the games and 54% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 9% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Chamings played 20% better than Ben Swift in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Chamings actually played at a level of 1,359 and Ben Swift at a level of 1,135. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 36% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 28% and 28% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Chamings changes to +28% and Ben Swift changes to -20%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Chamings becomes +14.7% and for Ben Swift becomes -9.2%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2011' so the adjustment for James Chamings is +9.6% and for Ben Swift is -5.8%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Ben Swift is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Chamings: 69%, Ben Swift: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Chamings: 51%, Ben Swift: 59%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for James Chamings: 1,096, level confidence: 51%. Final level for Ben Swift: 1,464, level confidence: 59%. Notes
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