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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2B: Chew Valley Winter A v Westbury David Lloyd Exiles (Wed 25 May 2011)Match played between Ian Bishop (home) and Bob Brassington (away).Match won by Ian Bishop. Result: 9-2,9-1,9-2. Starting level for Ian Bishop: 1,414, level confidence: 61%. Starting level for Bob Brassington: 1,118, level confidence: 66%. Ian Bishop to win as he is currently playing 26% better than Bob Brassington. Ian Bishop won all of the games and 84% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 134% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ian Bishop played 134% better than Bob Brassington in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ian Bishop actually played at a level of 1,923 and Bob Brassington at a level of 822. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 36% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 31% and 31% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ian Bishop changes to +31% and Bob Brassington changes to -28%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ian Bishop becomes +14.1% and for Bob Brassington becomes -14%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2011' so the adjustment for Ian Bishop is +9.2% and for Bob Brassington is -8.8%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Bob Brassington is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ian Bishop: 78%, Bob Brassington: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ian Bishop: 57%, Bob Brassington: 60%. A final adjustment of -1.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Ian Bishop: 1,507, level confidence: 57%. Final level for Bob Brassington: 1,063, level confidence: 60%. Notes
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