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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2: University of Bristol Llamas v Kingsdown (Thu 29 Jan 2015)Match played between Hannah Slatford (home) and Sarah Gillies (away).Match won by Sarah Gillies. Result: 2-9,0-9,2-9. Starting level for Hannah Slatford: 100, level confidence: 54%. Starting level for Sarah Gillies: 484, level confidence: 20%. Sarah Gillies to win as she is currently playing 384% better than Hannah Slatford. Sarah Gillies won all of the games and 87% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 164% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Sarah Gillies played 164% better than Hannah Slatford in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Sarah Gillies was taking it easy by anything up to 41%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 147 and 484 without affecting her level. In this case, Sarah Gillies played at level 274 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Sarah Gillies would normally have been playing at level 285 (based on typical behaviour), Hannah Slatford played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.9%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Sarah Gillies changes to 0% and Hannah Slatford changes to +0.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Sarah Gillies becomes 0% and for Hannah Slatford becomes +0.6%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Ladies Spring 2016 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Sarah Gillies is 0% and for Hannah Slatford is +0.5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Sarah Gillies: 45%, Hannah Slatford: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Sarah Gillies: 33%, Hannah Slatford: 54%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Hannah Slatford: 100, level confidence: 54%. Final level for Sarah Gillies: 483, level confidence: 33%. Notes
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