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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Lansdown B v Redland Winter Jaguars (Thu 12 Feb 2015)Match played between Charlotte Weldrake (home) and Daryl Williams (away).Match won by Daryl Williams. Result: 6-9,2-9,9-6,8-10:10-9,8-10,6-9,8-10:4-9,3-9,1-9:5-9,9-6,9-1,4-9,9-7:9-3,9-3,9-3. Starting level for Charlotte Weldrake: 736, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Starting level for Daryl Williams: 931, level confidence: 80%. Set manually. Daryl Williams to win as she is currently playing 26% better than Charlotte Weldrake. Daryl Williams won 75% of the games and 58% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 18% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daryl Williams played 23% better than Charlotte Weldrake in this match. In this case, Daryl Williams played at level 909 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Daryl Williams would normally have been playing at level 914 (based on typical behaviour), Charlotte Weldrake played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.6%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.5% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daryl Williams changes to 0% and Charlotte Weldrake changes to +0.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daryl Williams becomes 0% and for Charlotte Weldrake becomes +0.5%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Ladies Spring 2016 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Daryl Williams is 0% and for Charlotte Weldrake is +0.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daryl Williams: 89%, Charlotte Weldrake: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daryl Williams: 88%, Charlotte Weldrake: 84%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Charlotte Weldrake: 738, level confidence: 84%. Final level for Daryl Williams: 930, level confidence: 88%. Notes
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