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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Weston v Redland Winter Panthers (Thu 12 Feb 2015)Match played between Alicia Venables (home) and Claire Packwood (away).Match won by Alicia Venables. Result: 9-1,9-0,9-0. Starting level for Alicia Venables: 411, level confidence: 64%. Starting level for Claire Packwood: 267, level confidence: 62%. Alicia Venables to win as she is currently playing 54% better than Claire Packwood. Alicia Venables won all of the games and 96% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 379% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alicia Venables played 379% better than Claire Packwood in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alicia Venables actually played at a level of 725 and Claire Packwood at a level of 151. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 76% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 58% and 58% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alicia Venables changes to +57% and Claire Packwood changes to -58%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alicia Venables becomes +27.1% and for Claire Packwood becomes -28%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Ladies Spring 2016 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Alicia Venables is +20% and for Claire Packwood is -19%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Alicia Venables is limited to +10% and Claire Packwood is limited to -5.6% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alicia Venables: 80%, Claire Packwood: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alicia Venables: 45%, Claire Packwood: 45%. A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Alicia Venables: 451, level confidence: 45%. Final level for Claire Packwood: 252, level confidence: 45%. Notes
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