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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Workout Harbourside A v University of Bristol Chicken Dinners (Thu 05 Mar 2015)Match played between Maxine Hobbs (home) and Tayla Baker (away).Match won by Maxine Hobbs. Result: 9-5,9-0,9-0. Starting level for Maxine Hobbs: 905, level confidence: 88%. Set manually. Starting level for Tayla Baker: 238, level confidence: 64%. Maxine Hobbs to win as she is currently playing 280% better than Tayla Baker. Maxine Hobbs won all of the games and 84% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 134% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Maxine Hobbs played 134% better than Tayla Baker in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Maxine Hobbs was taking it easy by anything up to 33%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 373 and 905 without affecting her level. In this case, Maxine Hobbs played at level 583 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Maxine Hobbs would normally have been playing at level 610 (based on typical behaviour), Tayla Baker played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.7%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Maxine Hobbs changes to 0% and Tayla Baker changes to +2.4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Maxine Hobbs becomes 0% and for Tayla Baker becomes +2.4%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Ladies Spring 2016 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Maxine Hobbs is 0% and for Tayla Baker is +1.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Maxine Hobbs: 94%, Tayla Baker: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Maxine Hobbs: 74%, Tayla Baker: 63%. A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Maxine Hobbs: 904, level confidence: 74%. Final level for Tayla Baker: 241, level confidence: 63%. Notes
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