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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Workout Harbourside A v Redland Winter Lynx (Thu 12 Feb 2015)Match played between Sarah Stallard (home) and Harriet Minchin (away).Match won by Harriet Minchin. Result: 2-9,8-10,1-9. Starting level for Sarah Stallard: 334, level confidence: 10%. Starting level for Harriet Minchin: 649, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Harriet Minchin to win as she is currently playing 94% better than Sarah Stallard. Harriet Minchin won all of the games and 72% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 63% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harriet Minchin played 63% better than Sarah Stallard in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Harriet Minchin was taking it easy by anything up to 11%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 494 and 649 without affecting her level. In this case, Harriet Minchin played at level 559 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Harriet Minchin would normally have been playing at level 575 (based on typical behaviour), Sarah Stallard played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.8%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harriet Minchin changes to 0% and Sarah Stallard changes to +2%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harriet Minchin becomes 0% and for Sarah Stallard becomes +2%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Ladies Spring 2016 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Harriet Minchin is 0% and for Sarah Stallard is +1.5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harriet Minchin: 85%, Sarah Stallard: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harriet Minchin: 78%, Sarah Stallard: 29%. A final adjustment of +2.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Sarah Stallard: 358, level confidence: 29%. Final level for Harriet Minchin: 648, level confidence: 78%. Notes
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