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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside 1 v Redland Anacondas (Wed 14 Jan 2015)Match played between Toby Harding (home) and Dale Diment (away).Match won by Dale Diment. Result: 10-12,4-11,4-11. Starting level for Toby Harding: 1,463, level confidence: 16%. Starting level for Dale Diment: 4,972, level confidence: 67%. Dale Diment to win as he is currently playing 240% better than Toby Harding. Dale Diment won all of the games and 65% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 89% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dale Diment played 89% better than Toby Harding in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Dale Diment was taking it easy by anything up to 29%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,328 and 4,972 without affecting his level. In this case, Dale Diment played at level 3,131 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Dale Diment would normally have been playing at level 3,548 (based on typical behaviour), Toby Harding played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 13%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dale Diment changes to 0% and Toby Harding changes to +7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dale Diment becomes 0% and for Toby Harding becomes +4.3%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Dale Diment is 0% and for Toby Harding is +3.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dale Diment: 82%, Toby Harding: 40%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dale Diment: 61%, Toby Harding: 30%. A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Toby Harding: 1,508, level confidence: 30%. Final level for Dale Diment: 4,977, level confidence: 61%. Notes
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