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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Redland Anacondas v Workout Harbourside 1 (Wed 18 Feb 2015)Match played between Dale Diment (home) and Ben Thyer (away).Match won by Dale Diment. Result: 11-6,11-9,11-2. Starting level for Dale Diment: 5,283, level confidence: 69%. Starting level for Ben Thyer: 2,218, level confidence: 50%. Dale Diment to win as he is currently playing 138% better than Ben Thyer. Dale Diment won all of the games and 66% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dale Diment played 94% better than Ben Thyer in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Dale Diment was taking it easy by anything up to 17%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 3,454 and 5,283 without affecting his level. In this case, Dale Diment played at level 4,339 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Dale Diment would normally have been playing at level 4,374 (based on typical behaviour), Ben Thyer played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.8%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.5% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dale Diment changes to 0% and Ben Thyer changes to +0.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dale Diment becomes 0% and for Ben Thyer becomes +0.4%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Dale Diment is 0% and for Ben Thyer is 0%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dale Diment: 83%, Ben Thyer: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dale Diment: 75%, Ben Thyer: 64%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Dale Diment: 5,275, level confidence: 75%. Final level for Ben Thyer: 2,221, level confidence: 64%. Notes
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