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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Westbury David Lloyd Eurotaxis v Lansdown 1 (Wed 18 Feb 2015)Match played between Keith Sanzo (home) and Andy Ewings (away).Match won by Keith Sanzo. Result: 11-3,11-6,11-5. Starting level for Keith Sanzo: 5,179, level confidence: 69%. Starting level for Andy Ewings: 4,732, level confidence: 86%. Set manually. Keith Sanzo to win as he is currently playing 9% better than Andy Ewings. Keith Sanzo won all of the games and 70% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Keith Sanzo played 136% better than Andy Ewings in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Keith Sanzo actually played at a level of 7,600 and Andy Ewings at a level of 3,224. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 47% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Keith Sanzo changes to +44% and Andy Ewings changes to -33%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Keith Sanzo becomes +12.3% and for Andy Ewings becomes -9.8%. Given Keith Sanzo's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.8% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Keith Sanzo is +9.1% and for Andy Ewings is -7.2%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Andy Ewings is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Keith Sanzo: 83%, Andy Ewings: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Keith Sanzo: 56%, Andy Ewings: 63%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Keith Sanzo: 5,643, level confidence: 56%. Final level for Andy Ewings: 4,500, level confidence: 63%. Notes
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