|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Weston v Thornbury A (Wed 18 Feb 2015)Match played between Luke Bishop (home) and Joe Brooke (away).Match won by Luke Bishop. Result: 11-1,11-2,11-2:8-11,11-4,11-4,11-4:11-5,8-11,11-8,11-5:11-3,11-4,13-11:12-10,11-6,11-6. Starting level for Luke Bishop: 9,030, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Starting level for Joe Brooke: 6,033, level confidence: 44%. Luke Bishop to win as he is currently playing 50% better than Joe Brooke. Luke Bishop won all of the games and 87% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 560% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Luke Bishop played 560% better than Joe Brooke in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Luke Bishop actually played at a level of 18,962 and Joe Brooke at a level of 2,873. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 110% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 83% and 83% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Luke Bishop changes to +48% and Joe Brooke changes to -83%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Luke Bishop becomes +11.4% and for Joe Brooke becomes -20%. Given Luke Bishop's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 14% has been applied to his level change. Given Joe Brooke's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.3% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Luke Bishop is +7.5% and for Joe Brooke is -13%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Joe Brooke is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Luke Bishop: 87%, Joe Brooke: 66%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Luke Bishop: 42%, Joe Brooke: 32%. A final adjustment of +0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Luke Bishop: 9,880, level confidence: 42%. Final level for Joe Brooke: 5,737, level confidence: 32%. Notes
|