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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Westbury David Lloyd Eurotaxis v Weston (Wed 25 Feb 2015)Match played between Roshan Bharos (home) and Adam 'The Hulk' Giles (away).Match won by Roshan Bharos. Result: 9-11,11-8,11-1,11-9. Starting level for Roshan Bharos: 10,485, level confidence: 66%. Starting level for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 6,769, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Roshan Bharos to win as he is currently playing 55% better than Adam 'The Hulk' Giles. Roshan Bharos won 75% of the games and 59% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 45% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Roshan Bharos played 32% better than Adam 'The Hulk' Giles in this match. As Roshan Bharos has played below his allowed range at 9,067, his level reduction is 1.8% before damping. On the assumption that Roshan Bharos would normally have been playing at level 9,909 (based on typical behaviour), Adam 'The Hulk' Giles played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.5%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.5% and 4.4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Roshan Bharos changes to -1.5% and Adam 'The Hulk' Giles changes to +3.9%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Roshan Bharos becomes -0.7% and for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles becomes +1.9%. Given Roshan Bharos's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 19% has been applied to his level change. Given Adam 'The Hulk' Giles's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 7% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Roshan Bharos is -0.5% and for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles is +1.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Roshan Bharos: 81%, Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Roshan Bharos: 75%, Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 79%. A final adjustment of -1.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Roshan Bharos: 10,411, level confidence: 75%. Final level for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 6,725, level confidence: 79%. Notes
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