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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Westbury David Lloyd Eurotaxis v Weston (Wed 25 Feb 2015)Match played between Keith Sanzo (home) and Chris Clare (away).Match won by Chris Clare. Result: 11-1,6-11,5-11,7-11. Starting level for Keith Sanzo: 5,643, level confidence: 55%. Starting level for Chris Clare: 8,184, level confidence: 81%. Set manually. Chris Clare to win as he is currently playing 45% better than Keith Sanzo. Chris Clare won 75% of the games and 54% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 17% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Clare played 22% better than Keith Sanzo in this match. As Chris Clare has played below his allowed range at 7,169, his level reduction is 3.8% before damping. On the assumption that Chris Clare would normally have been playing at level 7,844 (based on typical behaviour), Keith Sanzo played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.5%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.1% and 5.4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Clare changes to -2.1% and Keith Sanzo changes to +5.4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Clare becomes -1.1% and for Keith Sanzo becomes +2.4%. Given Chris Clare's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 12% has been applied to his level change. Given Keith Sanzo's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.7% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Chris Clare is -0.7% and for Keith Sanzo is +1.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Clare: 90%, Keith Sanzo: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Clare: 83%, Keith Sanzo: 68%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Keith Sanzo: 5,732, level confidence: 68%. Final level for Chris Clare: 8,113, level confidence: 83%. Notes
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