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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Thornbury A v Redland Anacondas (Wed 28 Jan 2015)Match played between Bradley Clare (home) and Mike Harris (away).Match won by Mike Harris. Result: 1-11,2-11,5-11:7-11,4-11,3-11:6-11,5-11,2-11:9-11,11-6,6-11,11-9,11-6:11-5,11-7,11-9. Starting level for Bradley Clare: 5,793, level confidence: 58%. Starting level for Mike Harris: 16,497, level confidence: 85%. Set manually. Mike Harris to win as he is currently playing 185% better than Bradley Clare. Mike Harris won all of the games and 80% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 313% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mike Harris played 313% better than Bradley Clare in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mike Harris actually played at a level of 19,855 and Bradley Clare at a level of 4,813. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 12% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mike Harris changes to +7.9% and Bradley Clare changes to -12%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mike Harris becomes +2.4% and for Bradley Clare becomes -4.1%. Given Mike Harris's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 33% has been applied to his level change. Given Bradley Clare's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3.3% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Mike Harris is +1.4% and for Bradley Clare is -2.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mike Harris: 92%, Bradley Clare: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mike Harris: 77%, Bradley Clare: 63%. A final adjustment of -1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Bradley Clare: 5,614, level confidence: 63%. Final level for Mike Harris: 16,444, level confidence: 77%. Notes
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