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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Redland Anacondas v Thornbury A (Wed 04 Mar 2015)Match played between James Bamber (home) and Craig Webb (away).Match won by James Bamber. Result: 11-7,11-5,11-4. Starting level for James Bamber: 11,476, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Starting level for Craig Webb: 5,819, level confidence: 10%. James Bamber to win as he is currently playing 97% better than Craig Webb. James Bamber won all of the games and 67% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Bamber played 106% better than Craig Webb in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Bamber actually played at a level of 11,736 and Craig Webb at a level of 5,690. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.3% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.6% and 1.6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Bamber changes to 0% and Craig Webb changes to -1.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Bamber becomes +0.1% and for Craig Webb becomes -0.9%. Given James Bamber's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 21% has been applied to his level change. Given Craig Webb's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3.4% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2014/2015' so the adjustment for James Bamber is 0% and for Craig Webb is -0.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Bamber: 84%, Craig Webb: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Bamber: 82%, Craig Webb: 31%. A final adjustment of -33.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for James Bamber: 11,459, level confidence: 82%. Final level for Craig Webb: 3,267, level confidence: 31%. Notes
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