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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Lansdown 1 v Weston (Wed 28 Jan 2015)Match played between Will Kingwell (home) and Luke Bishop (away).Match won by Luke Bishop. Result: 9-11,7-11,4-11:11-6,4-11,4-11,11-7,5-11:13-11,6-11,5-11,6-11:6-11,11-6,11-8,11-5:11-7,11-5,11-3. Starting level for Will Kingwell: 5,956, level confidence: 42%. Starting level for Luke Bishop: 9,027, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Luke Bishop to win as he is currently playing 52% better than Will Kingwell. Luke Bishop won all of the games and 62% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Luke Bishop played 65% better than Will Kingwell in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Luke Bishop actually played at a level of 9,419 and Will Kingwell at a level of 5,708. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.3% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.5% and 3.5% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Luke Bishop changes to +2.1% and Will Kingwell changes to -3.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Luke Bishop becomes +1.1% and for Will Kingwell becomes -1.8%. Given Luke Bishop's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 14% has been applied to his level change. Given Will Kingwell's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Luke Bishop is +0.7% and for Will Kingwell is -1.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Luke Bishop: 84%, Will Kingwell: 65%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Luke Bishop: 81%, Will Kingwell: 62%. A final adjustment of +0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Will Kingwell: 5,879, level confidence: 62%. Final level for Luke Bishop: 9,193, level confidence: 81%. Notes
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