|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Lansdown 1 v Weston (Wed 28 Jan 2015)Match played between Andy Ewings (home) and Adam 'The Hulk' Giles (away).Match won by Adam 'The Hulk' Giles. Result: 11-6,4-11,4-11,11-7,5-11. Starting level for Andy Ewings: 4,689, level confidence: 80%. Set manually. Starting level for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 7,323, level confidence: 64%. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles to win as he is currently playing 56% better than Andy Ewings. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles won 60% of the games and 57% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 31% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adam 'The Hulk' Giles played 15% better than Andy Ewings in this match. As Adam 'The Hulk' Giles has played below his allowed range at 5,894, his level reduction is 9% before damping. On the assumption that Adam 'The Hulk' Giles would normally have been playing at level 6,908 (based on typical behaviour), Andy Ewings played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 13%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.1% and 10.3% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles changes to -7.1% and Andy Ewings changes to +8.2%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles becomes -2.7% and for Andy Ewings becomes +3.3%. Given Adam 'The Hulk' Giles's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles is -1.8% and for Andy Ewings is +2.5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 80%, Andy Ewings: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 69%, Andy Ewings: 77%. A final adjustment of -2.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Andy Ewings: 4,788, level confidence: 77%. Final level for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 6,863, level confidence: 69%. Notes
|