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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Lansdown 1 v Weston (Wed 28 Jan 2015)Match played between Jeremy Goulding (home) and Rob 'The Serve' Watkins (away).Match won by Jeremy Goulding. Result: 11-7,11-5,11-3. Starting level for Jeremy Goulding: 5,163, level confidence: 65%. Starting level for Rob 'The Serve' Watkins: 2,916, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Jeremy Goulding to win as he is currently playing 77% better than Rob 'The Serve' Watkins. Jeremy Goulding won all of the games and 69% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jeremy Goulding played 120% better than Rob 'The Serve' Watkins in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jeremy Goulding actually played at a level of 5,755 and Rob 'The Serve' Watkins at a level of 2,616. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 11% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.5% and 8.5% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jeremy Goulding changes to +8.5% and Rob 'The Serve' Watkins changes to -7.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jeremy Goulding becomes +3.3% and for Rob 'The Serve' Watkins becomes -3.6%. Given Jeremy Goulding's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.7% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Jeremy Goulding is +2.5% and for Rob 'The Serve' Watkins is -2.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jeremy Goulding: 81%, Rob 'The Serve' Watkins: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jeremy Goulding: 72%, Rob 'The Serve' Watkins: 76%. A final adjustment of +1.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jeremy Goulding: 5,295, level confidence: 72%. Final level for Rob 'The Serve' Watkins: 2,928, level confidence: 76%. Notes
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