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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Weston v Lansdown 1 (Wed 04 Mar 2015)Match played between Adam 'The Hulk' Giles (home) and Will Kingwell (away).Match won by Adam 'The Hulk' Giles. Result: 8-11,11-3,11-3,11-9. Starting level for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 6,725, level confidence: 79%. Set manually. Starting level for Will Kingwell: 5,651, level confidence: 63%. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles to win as he is currently playing 19% better than Will Kingwell. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles won 75% of the games and 61% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 58% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adam 'The Hulk' Giles played 36% better than Will Kingwell in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adam 'The Hulk' Giles actually played at a level of 7,184 and Will Kingwell at a level of 5,290. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.8% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles changes to +5% and Will Kingwell changes to -6.2%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles becomes +2.2% and for Will Kingwell becomes -2.6%. Given Adam 'The Hulk' Giles's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 6.9% has been applied to his level change. Given Will Kingwell's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.7% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles is +1.5% and for Will Kingwell is -1.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 89%, Will Kingwell: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 83%, Will Kingwell: 74%. A final adjustment of -1.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 6,654, level confidence: 83%. Final level for Will Kingwell: 5,522, level confidence: 74%. Notes
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