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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Redland Anacondas v Weston (Wed 11 Mar 2015)Match played between Mike Harris (home) and Luke Bishop (away).Match won by Mike Harris. Result: 11-5,11-2,11-5:11-4,11-7,11-6:0-11,2-11,3-11:11-5,11-6,2-11,13-15,11-8:8-11,6-11,11-9,11-0,11-8. Starting level for Mike Harris: 17,937, level confidence: 62%. Starting level for Luke Bishop: 10,067, level confidence: 64%. Mike Harris to win as he is currently playing 78% better than Luke Bishop. Mike Harris won all of the games and 73% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mike Harris played 175% better than Luke Bishop in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mike Harris actually played at a level of 22,284 and Luke Bishop at a level of 8,103. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 24% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 18% and 18% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mike Harris changes to +18% and Luke Bishop changes to -17%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mike Harris becomes +4.4% and for Luke Bishop becomes -4.8%. Given Mike Harris's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 35% has been applied to his level change. Given Luke Bishop's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 17% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Mike Harris is +2.4% and for Luke Bishop is -3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mike Harris: 79%, Luke Bishop: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mike Harris: 63%, Luke Bishop: 64%. A final adjustment of +1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Mike Harris: 18,743, level confidence: 63%. Final level for Luke Bishop: 9,767, level confidence: 64%. Notes
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