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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Redland Anacondas v Weston (Wed 11 Mar 2015)Match played between James Bamber (home) and Adam 'The Hulk' Giles (away).Match won by James Bamber. Result: 11-4,11-7,11-6. Starting level for James Bamber: 11,459, level confidence: 61%. Starting level for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 6,654, level confidence: 79%. Set manually. James Bamber to win as he is currently playing 72% better than Adam 'The Hulk' Giles. James Bamber won all of the games and 66% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Bamber played 94% better than Adam 'The Hulk' Giles in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Bamber actually played at a level of 12,166 and Adam 'The Hulk' Giles at a level of 6,267. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.2% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.7% and 4.7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Bamber changes to +4.7% and Adam 'The Hulk' Giles changes to -3.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Bamber becomes +1.8% and for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles becomes -1.8%. Given James Bamber's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 21% has been applied to his level change. Given Adam 'The Hulk' Giles's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 6.6% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2014/2015' so the adjustment for James Bamber is +1.1% and for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles is -1.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Bamber: 78%, Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Bamber: 74%, Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 84%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for James Bamber: 11,572, level confidence: 74%. Final level for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 6,560, level confidence: 84%. Notes
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