|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Westbury David Lloyd Eurotaxis v Thornbury A (Wed 11 Mar 2015)Match played between Sam Ellis (home) and Bradley Clare (away).Match won by Sam Ellis. Result: 11-7,11-6,11-7:11-7,8-11,11-7,11-1:11-9,11-7,11-9:11-2,11-7,11-5:11-8,6-11,11-3,1-11,11-13. Starting level for Sam Ellis: 7,964, level confidence: 84%. Set manually. Starting level for Bradley Clare: 5,096, level confidence: 66%. Sam Ellis to win as he is currently playing 56% better than Bradley Clare. Sam Ellis won all of the games and 62% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Sam Ellis played 65% better than Bradley Clare in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Sam Ellis actually played at a level of 8,183 and Bradley Clare at a level of 4,960. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.8% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.2% and 2.2% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Sam Ellis changes to +1.7% and Bradley Clare changes to -2.2%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Sam Ellis becomes +0.9% and for Bradley Clare becomes -1.3%. Given Sam Ellis's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 11.1% has been applied to his level change. Given Bradley Clare's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.4% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Sam Ellis is +0.6% and for Bradley Clare is -1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Sam Ellis: 91%, Bradley Clare: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Sam Ellis: 89%, Bradley Clare: 79%. A final adjustment of +4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Sam Ellis: 8,599, level confidence: 89%. Final level for Bradley Clare: 5,088, level confidence: 79%. Notes
|